Toward a New Central Europe

V
APPENDIX
MAPS AND STATISTICAL DATA

THE NUMERICAL STRENGTH AND GROWTH OF THE DANUBIAN NATIONS BETWEEN 1851 AND 1967

IN preparing this statistical survey the Mid-European Research Institute, New York, used all official census returns between 1851 and 1960. In 1851 a most comprehensive and relatively "neutral" Austrian conscription of the population 1) of the Habsburg Monarchy took place (see also Map 4). By the "Danubian area" we mean the territories of the typical Danubian states: Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Rumania, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. Therefore, besides the former Austro-Hungarian Monarchy (Map 5), the statistical figures also contain the population of the pre-World War I Serbia, Montenegro, Rumania (Regat) and Bulgaria which, in 1851, were not part of the Habsburg Monarchy but were under Turkish domination up to the second half of the 19th century (Map 5) Because a sizable number of Rumanians live in Bessarabia (present Moldavia in the USSR) and in Bukovina (the greater part of which was taken over by the Soviet Union ) these provinces are contained in our figures although their inclusion in the Danubian area may be questioned.

In 1851 this multinational Danubian area of, 1,029,000 km2 contained a population of 38 million which more than doubled to 80 million by 1960 -year of the last published census returns (Tables 1-3). When the figures of the population growth are analyzed nation by nation, great differences become evident (Table 2). When Czoernig published the figures of the Austrian conscription, the greater part of the Danubian region was under the authoritarian regime of the Habsburgs and the Balkans were still under Turkish rule (see Map 4). In 1867, the Austro-Hungarian Federal Compromise laid the foundation for the Dual Federal Monarchy which remained unchanged up to 1918. (See Map 5.)

The era between 1918 and 1938 may be called that of the Little Entente or new small states (see Map 6) under the protection of France. The invasion of Hitler began in 1938 and the German National Socialist domination collapsed at the end of the Second World War. After 1945 the USSR dominated the Danubian area with the exception of Austria and, after 1948, Yugoslavia.

Up to the middle of the 19th century many nations (in Tables 1 and 2) were still undeveloped and referred to as "nationalities" with

371

a middle class intelligentsia and city life still embryonic. They now have either statehood or have become "independent" republics, or have some degree of autonomy although heavily overshadowed by the Red Army and the dictatorial power of the Communist party. While the capitals of these Danubian nations have developed, commerce and industry have also had a significant growth. So, by the middle of this century all the Danubian nations have advanced industrially although still far behind the Western nations.

Non-Slavic Nations

Tables 1 and 2 show how the different Danubian nations increased in numerical strength under the various political systems:

Germans: with 7.8 million in the middle of the 19th century were in a dominant position at that time and the most numerous among the Danubian nations. They increased up to 1944 to above 12 million when they fell back with the collapse of Hitlerism as several millions were expelled from the Danubian countries. Their total number in 1945 returned consequently to that of 1851. Now, less than 10 percent of the 7.9 million Danubian Germans live as minorities outside of present Austria.

Hungarians: Although Hungarians suffered great reduction in number during the 160 years under Turkish occupation of their central Lowlands (1526-1686), their recovery was rapid during the 18th and 19th centuries. The 1851 Austrian census found almost 5 million Hungarians in the Carpathian basin living on both sides of the Danube and Tisza rivers. Their number doubled under the fifty year period of the Austro-Hungarian political federation up to 1918. The Trianon Peace Treaty of 1920 allotted more than three million Hungarians to the newly created neighboring states where the census returns showed less favorable figures for Hungarians and other minorities. About 250,000 Hungarians left these lost territories after the First World War and some 308,000 after the Second World War. These increased the number of Hungarians now living in present Hungary to almost 10 million. If more than 3 million now living in neighboring countries are added, their total is 13,250,000 -second among Danubian nations whereas they were third in 1851.

Rumanians: With six and one half million in 1851, Rumanians have advanced numerically to become the largest nation in the Danubian area because they have increased to over 19 million - almost three times their number one hundred years ago. Of the 19 million, 2.3 million live in Moldavia, Bessarabia, annexed by the Soviet Union in 1945; 170,000 live in Bukovina also annexed by the USSR; 160,000 are in Yugoslavia and some 16,000 in Hungary.

Jews: Up to 1851 "Jews" included religion and race in the Austrian registration but after 1867 during an era of liberalism, both Austrians

.372

and Hungarians registered Jews by religion -"Israelites" -and not by race. Questioners also asked their "Umgangsprache" in Austria and their "mother tongue" in Hungary thereby registering them as Germans. Hungarians, Rumanians, Czechs, etc. But this practice was discontinued after 1920 by the Succession states. Questionnaires then also asked their "nationality" meaning their "ethnic origin" but as few Jews declared for "Jewish nationality", for statistical purposes, the denominational figures better indicate their actual number.

Following the emancipation of the Jews in the middle of the 19th century and the abolishment of the ghetto, their number grew rapidly, not only through natural increase but by heavy immigration from Russia and Poland -the latter being also under Czarist rule. Under the 50 year period of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, Jews increased as follows:

Jewish Population in Austria-Hungary (in thousands)

Year Austria Hungary
1851 338 369
1869 822 552
1880 1,005 638
1890 1,143 725
1900 1,225 831
1910 1,400 922

In 1851 the number of Jews in the Danubian area was 777,000 which by 1910 had increased to 2.4 million -more than three times the original number. The Jewish population enriched the commercial and intellectual life of the great cities of Vienna, Budapest, and Prague during this period. But after the First World War their total number began to decrease while the genocide of National Socialism after 1938 brought their number down to 380,000 - less than half of the 1851 figures.

Slavic Nations

Czechs: The Czechs with almost 4 million in 1851 were the fourth largest nation. They increased to above 9 million, becoming the third largest and industrially the most advanced nation in the Danubian area. If we look to previous decades we find that the Czechs increased their number under the era of the Dual Monarchy faster than the politically dominant Germans. The Czechs increased by 65 percent whereas the Germans increased by only ~3 percent between 1851 and 1910. The more rapid increase of the Czechs followed after the First -and especially after the Second World War when the Sudeten Germans were ousted from the Czech lands.

373

Slovaks: The Slovaks show a comparatively slow increase between 1851 and 1914. This is explained partly by their heavy rate of emigration to America between 1899 and 1914. 310,000 Slovaks emigrated to America during this time. Nevertheless, the Slovaks living in Hungary increased from 1.7 to 2.1 million up to 1910, in the whole Danubian area to 4.2 million till 1967. Their increase therefore exceeds that of the other Slavic nations with the exception of the Croats and Bulgarians.

Rusins (Ruthenes): In tables 1-3 only those Rusins are included who live within the Danubian area -the Carpathian Basin. It seems that their number was erroneously stated in 1851 and again in 1869. The Rusins live mostly on the upper parts of the Carpathian mountains and the 1851 and 1869 conscription figures were mainly estimates. The first individual conscription was taken in 1880, the result of which showed only 353,000 in all of Hungary. Between 1889 and 1910, 58,000 Rusins emigrated to America which explains the slow increase in their number although it is generally known that Rusins had a high birth rate but also a high mortality rate. After the First World War the great majority of Rusins lived in the province of Subcarpathian Ruthenia ("Podkarpatska Rus") in Czechoslovakia. After World War II, the Soviet Union seized and took over this land. Annexed to the Soviet Union under the name "Zakarpatskaya Ukraina", Ukrainians inundated the country. In consequence, the number of Rusins increased to 890,000. The 1959 census showed also an influx of 30,000 Russians plus the Red Army.

Serbs: Somewhat below 4 million in 1851, the Serbs increased fairly evenly up to 1910. During the Balkan wars of 1912-1913 and the First World War, they suffered heavy losses but after 1920 recovery was rapid. According to the latest figures the Serbs now approach 8 million having advanced from fifth place in 1851 to fourth place among the Danubian nations.

Croats: The increase of the Croats was slow before the First World War when 100,295 Croats emigrated to America. But with emigration now stopped the number of Croats has increased, especially after 1920 and has now passed the 4.4 million mark.

Slovenes: With 1.1 million in 1851 the Slovenes, almost all of whom lived within former Austria -now the Republic of Slovenia in Yugoslavia -show the lowest rate of natural increase not only among the Slavs but among all the Danubian nations. The Slovenes increased very slowly from 1.1 million in 1851 to 1.6 million throughout the entire century. They did however reach a comparatively high cultural level.

Bulgarians: Even today a predominantly agricultural nation, the Bulgars more than tripled during this century. From a nation of 2.2 million subjected to Turkish rule they increased to 7 million

374

although some hundred thousand live outside of Bulgaria in Dobrudja and Macedonia, the latter being under hot dispute with Yugoslavia.

Summary: Growth of Slavs and Non-Slavs compared.
New Problems

If we consider the growth of nations during the Dual Monarchy we see that before 1910 the politically dominant Austro-Germans increased only by 53 percent while the other still predominantly agricultural nations grew more rapidly - the Hungarians by 109, Rumanians by 78, and the Bulgarians by 77 percent. The 209 percent exceptionally high increase of the Jewish population is explained by their high rate of immigration during the era of liberalism when they prospered highly, especially in the capitals and cities. Others - the Slovaks, Croats and Serbs grew more rapidly after the First World War when their emigration stopped and they continued to increase after the Second World War. But in the last decades the increase was caused by state interference at the expense of the drastically reduced Jewish element, the expelled Germans and Hungarians living as minorities.

Table 3 groups the Danubian nations as Slavs and non-Slavs. The totals show that the non-Slavs increased in the Danubian area from 20 million to 38 million while the Slavs increased more rapidly from 15 to 25 million. Among the non-Slav nations the faster growing Rumanians and Hungarians somewhat counterbalanced the radical but politically caused decrease of Germans and Jews. The comparatively fast increase of the southern Slavs partly explains why the grand total of all Slavs increased during this more than one hundred year period by 132 percent while the non-Slavs grew only 92 percent. The rate of increase between 1851 and 1960 follows in their order of growth:

Increase between 1851 and 1960 if 1851 = 100

1. Bulgarians 303
2. Rumanians 269
3. Hungarians 260
4. Croats 259
5. Czechs 232
6. Serbs 212
7. Slovaks 209
8. Rusins 183
9. Slovenes 143
10. Germans 100
11. Jews 44

375

As can be seen, the comparative strength and growth of the Danubian nations were influenced only partly through natural increase. Sometimes political events played a much greater part in these last hundred years. As a rule, however, agricultural populations increased more rapidly as the more rapid growth of the Bulgarians, Rumanians, Hungarians, Croats, Serbs and Slovaks show. Industrialization (see Map 7) slows down the natural increase of the population but political factors may counterbalance this relatively slow, natural increase, e.g., in the case of the Czechs. Population experts may find causes for the relatively faster or slower increase of the population also in the religious composition of the population.

It should be pointed out that the ten or eleven Danubian nations do not have clear ethnic boundaries. The greater portion of each nation lives in an area where it forms 75 percent or more of the population but large territories between those almost purely national areas are inhabited by two or three nations mixed together as majorities and minorities in a peculiar multinational symbiosis. It should be clear therefore that a political form like the Swiss federation would be more natural and appropriate for this multinational Danubian area than the present pseudo-national small states with their pseudo-independence. (See Maps 8 and 9)

The normal life and development of the minorities living in the present so-called "national states" of the Danubian area are not secure. The national composition of whole areas and large towns was changed during the last decades by violent political interference. The dominant nations used expulsion, administrative methods, school systems, expropriation of landed estates and properties, confiscation of the press and cultural institutions to change the composition of the population and increase the majority of the dominant nation at the expense of the minorities. This trend of State interference increased constantly after the era of liberalism closed at the outbreak of World War I.

The climax of violent State interference came after 1939 with National Socialist and, after 1944, under Communist-Stalinist regimes when hundreds of thousands or even millions were expelled, imprisoned, de-nationalized or forced to join the dominant nation. After the thawing of Stalinism, some improvement became evident - first in Yugoslavia after 1948, in Czechoslovakia after 1968 but least in Rumania. Politicians of today should remember that national chauvinism and oppression of minorities caused two political explosions in the Danubian area, first in 1938-40 when the French supported Little Entente system was broken up and after 1944 when German domination of the area was stricken down. Those who now rely on the presence of the Red Army to maintain oppressive policies should understand that oppression based on a foreign power and militarism cannot always continue.

376

Leading Slavic politicians in particular should be most careful in considering the future of their nation. Table 3 shows that notwithstanding the strong Slavic thrust forward during the last decades, the majority of the Danubian peoples is still non-Slav and this important group of nations occupies the geographic center of the Danubian area: Austrians, Hungarians and Rumanians living between the northern and southern Slavs. Instead of national domination and oppression of minorities within pseudonational states under the protection of the army of a foreign power, an autochtonous solution of the Danubian nations is needed for which international neutralization and federalization, or Helvetization, are the basic principles of a just solution: a new Compromise.

1) Czoernig, Karl von, Ethnographie der Osterreichischen Monarchie, Wien, 1857, 1-3 vol. Die Verteilung der Volkerstaemme und deren Gruppen in der Oest. Monarchie. Wien. K.K. Direction der Adm. Statistik. 1861. From Czoernig's official statistics the population figures of the north Italian provinces, lost in 1859, were deducted. Galicia, which is not a part of the Danubian area and is presently divided between the Soviet Union and Poland was also excluded.

377